'Jana Nayagan'- Political Debut of a Superstar

The most interesting elections Tamil Nadu has seen since 1977 is the right way to sum up the upcoming assembly elections. You have a formidable DMK on one side, with a rock-solid alliance that seems unbreakable at the moment, A leader who is trying to shoulder a legacy beyond his capacity of a party like AIADMK on the other. BJP is desperately trying ways to get some hold in a state which has been brozoning them forever now (though they have been putting some foothold in the past 5 years). You have the permanent spoiler Seeman, whose primary job is to cut votes everywhere. And then the legitimate superstar, Vijay, someone who has been enjoying the cushion of stardom through his millions of fans, even if the movies are bad. Expecting the same thing for his political debut as well. The sentiment is 'Padam Sumaar, aana Vijay kaaga paakkalaam.' Vijay’s entry into electoral politics will be a major spoiler, no second thoughts. Entering at the peak of his career, his sheer mass appeal will undoubtedly fetch him votes. Even so, at best he might secure around 14%-18% vote share; we will come to this logic later.

Before that, I want to address the elephant in the room. Vijay's attempt and that of his supporters to equate this movement with Anna’s in 1967 is ridiculous. DMK in 1967 was at the peak of the Anti-Hindi agitation, a time when people in general were furious about the centre's control and were steeped in Tamil pride. Congress had the weakest leader of that time in Bakthavatsalam. And most importantly, DMK’s leadership had Anna himself, Kalaignar Karunanidhi, MGR, and Nedunchezhiyan. I think that ends the debate. So, comparing Vijay's entry to Anna's movement is nothing short of absurd.

The best election to compare with is the 1977 one, which is one more comparison Vijay and his fans are taking up every time apart from Anna’s 1967 movement. The entry of The Great MGR. But I’m not comparing Vijay and his TVK with MGR and AIADMK, rather with another party which played the spoiler for The DMK in 1977 'Janata Party'. When Congress was slowly losing its charm in Tamil Nadu and DMK had internal tussles, which led to the uprising of the man of the masses, MGR, Janata Party came into the foray primarily to target Congress. It ended up winning 10 seats with a 17% vote share. That’s exactly what is going to happen now, but the only difference is that it ended up spoiling DMK’s vote share predominantly in ’77, whereas this time around TVK will cut into every party’s vote share. However, it won’t affect DMK much, as they have a formidable alliance and solid vote base; even with a dip, it won’t impact them significantly. So at best, Vijay will be a repeat of the Janata Party of 1977 without Damaging The DMK. 

Now, to the main part. How much vote share would Vijay be able to gain? As mentioned earlier, somewhere between 14-18%. That in itself is a phenomenal number for a first-timer. The math is simple: DMK+ will go down from 47% to 42%, ADMK+ (or NDA, that's how BJP wants to call it, which I really don't get) might go down from 38% to 32%, and the biggest loser because of Vijay's entry would be Seeman, who will drop significantly from 7% to 2-3%.

About 5-6% of DMK+'s votes, around the same numbers from ADMK+, and 4-5% from Seeman will give Vijay a solid 14-18% vote share with 1-2 seats at best. Urban votes will predominantly remain with DMK. Rural will be interesting. Anything beyond 18% will be a miracle for Vijay. That's possible only if people see Vijay as a savior of sorts, like how they saw MGR in 1977. With greater awareness among rural voters these days, and anti-incumbency which is not to the extent that people need a desperate change, it's difficult. Plus, other important factors will affect rural votes like symbol, candidate, caste and money, in which Vijay will not stand a chance against the formidable DMK. One more way the numbers might go up for Vijay is through some solid alliance. The only possibility as of now is with DMDK, which will benefit both parties. There is this emotional connect; people will accept the alliance, and Vijay can gain substantial rural votes in Cuddalore, Kallakurichi, Virudhunagar, Aruppukottai, and surrounding areas.

To conclude, like how a Vijay fan would react after watching his movie, this is going to be a 'Kudumbangal Kondadum' blockbuster elections.